Author – Evgeny Nikonov, specially for RuGenerations.
Let’analyse spread of generations in Russia at the current moment and what will be the strategic management conclusions for Russia. We will take data of Rosstat 2007 research (Federal service of state statistics – www.gks.ru). Calculation of population, belonging to certain generations is not fully precise as the source data of Rosstat research is given in 4-year intervals, so the data boundaries don’t concure with generational boundaries.
| Analysis and reflections on graphs and source data | Comments |
| Large part of Russian population is over 60 years (14+3=17%) | Average lifetime in 2007 is 73,9 years for women and 61,4 years for men. Portion of elederly people will increase in the future. |
| Low portion of people (we can even say gaps), who were born in Russia in 1943-47 and 1998-2002 and around these years. | Substancial decrease in birth rates in change periods (Second World War – in Russia it is also called Great patriotic war, Perestroika, crisises, dissolution of Soviet Union and further transformations). Since 1992 till today natural mortality in Russia is larger than birth rate.In 2009 natural population loss will be replaced by labour migration to 60%. |
| High portion of people born in 1958-1962, 1983-1987 and around these time zones. | Growth of birth rate in periods of economic growth (after war baby-boom) and stabiity (stagnation in Brezhnev time). Influence of programs devoted to support of families with children in 1981-82. |
| Approximately equal number of people belongs to generations Baby-Boomer and X | There is a difference with USA – number of Baby-Boomers there essentially increases number of X generation |
What should strategic managers draw attention to?
1. Significant deficit on labour market in Russia will start since 2010 and will grow on further. Deficit will include both number of labour resources (for country GDP growth more people will be needed) and their quality. At first will grow competition for qualified employees (decrease of 1968-1972 years of birth) and then approximately since 2013 for young employees (dip around 1998-2002). Afterwards competition will grow in all sectors of labour market (significant reduction in number of working population due to achievement of retirement age by Baby-Boomer generation; number of women exceeds number of men). Compensation of this deficit by labour migration will greater influence non-qualified working labour. See graph below – main tendencies of Russian population spread in different age groups in 2017 – that’s transfer of 2007 data (we didn’t prognosticate birth and death rates 2007-2017, just “aged” all the segments for 10 years and took approximate life interval of 79 years).
Described situation is probably one of the engines of government initiatives on transition to innovative economy and modernization of education system – how should we as a country produce more with less number of labour resources.
Above-mentioned risks are especially important for regions with high density of population or having specialisation; large and territorically spread companies; high-tech enterprises and companies of professional service sphere, management positions (proportion of gifted people doesn’t change).
2. Risks of loosing knowledge and qualification of retired generations – “Silent” and “Baby-boomers”.
Each of these generations made special input into development of concrete industries and spheres in our country. Some of key knowledge spheres of these generations:
Silent: science and discoveries, culture (museums, literature, cinema, art), professional knowledge in working professions.
Baby-Boomers: creation and management of large systems of country scale, management of big company, regional development (planned economy politics), engineer professions.
3. Pay attention to “quality” of immigration and emigration on country, regional, company and organizational level.
4. Pay attention to adoption of other countries’ experience in order to find solutions to mentioned difficulties. Due to certain difference in developing rates and change of generations, some countries (e.g. USA) has already faced mentioned situation (Baby-Boom in USA started earlier than in USSR as USSR required more time for after-war recovery).
How can Generation Theory help?
1. Teach representatives of different generations better understand and interaction with each other (e.g. explain to Silent and Baby-Boomer generations why should they transfer knowledge to others)*)
2. Specify already developed strategies, directed on forming the image of good employer as a company, region, с untry from generational point of view.
3. Define more precisely development zones, connected with interaction of generations, translate experience of other countries and adopt it for Russia.
*) We plan to write special articles devoted to this question.
